Archives for posts with tag: VE

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Søren Kjærsgård giver en god opdatering (2019 august)

Resume af ”Danish and European Energy 2018”


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It is easy to see that the German Energiewende takes Germany down into a bottomless green hole.

With further development of the ambitious Energiewende, it will be even worse.
During the winter, when there is most demand for power, we have minimum sunshine. Nothing at nighttime.

Contrary to many “Green Dreams”, we must face the facts:
The North European wind is almost synchronized.
Søren Kjærsgård
provides a very comprehensive evaluation of the North European wind.
On page 22 you will see (normalized) data from Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Spain, France, Finland, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and Germany.
Over this enormous area, the wind power varies quite a lot.
Maximum: 269 % of average and minimum 18 % of average (7 % of maximum)

The modern society cannot function without a stable supply of power.
Besides all this, it will be very expensive, if we should have wind-turbines here, there and everywhere – just hoping for something fantastic to turn up.

The German Solution

Germany works hard to avoid black outs as a result of the ambitious Energiewende.
Sometimes you see a little about Dunkelflaute,which means “Dark Windless”.
For the time being the backbone of the supply is based on polluting use of coal, especially brown coal from intensive strip-mining.
There is some help from Poland and especially from France.

Norway

Everybody dreams about help from Norway.
OK
Norway has quite a lot of hydro-power, even regulated hydro-power.
Enough for own use.
But it will be a very expensive drip in the ocean if it should satisfy European needs.

South-Australia

In South-Australia, the heavy reliance on energy from renewables (sun and wind) has made it necessary to introduce scheduled black-outs.

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Dunkelflaute

We can expect huge problems for the power supply in Germany, when the last nuclear power plant shut down in 2022 and the fossil plants in the years thereafter.
At times there is Dunkelflaute in Germany, which means windless when it is dark.
For several days during Dunkelflaute, the key figures for the German electricity supply were approximately the following:
– 26 000 wind turbines produced less than 1 GW
– 1.2 million solar panels (PV) max 2.3 GW at noon.
– The power plants not depending on wind and weather and instead
– ..- depending on biofuels and Hydro supplied about 7 GW.
In all, the total “green” production was less than 10 GW at midday.
Demand for Electric energy, not considering heat and a little for transport, is almost 75 GW.
More at peak times.
This means that approximately 90% of electricity production came from nuclear power, fossil fuels and imports, some of this will be nuclear.
Source: Der Spiegel, which is almost banned by “the greens”.

YET:
Still, at the beginning of the ambitious Energiewende, it only has economic consequences.
More about the German difficulties.

If you want to save, just the day-night variations, in batteries, already this will be furiously expensive.

  • Here it is natural to ask wether imported biofuels in fact is green.
    At least, it is not green when we see how Germany destroys villages in order to get space for strip mining for brown coal to feed the new power plants.
  • If you want to store biofuels or biogas for backup, it will be nothing but a very expensive drip in the ocean.
    Until now I have not seen anything in this direction.
  • New opportunities for Hydro are almost nonexistent.
  • In the European context, there is virtually only one opportunity for new and affordably pumped storage.
    This is a Mega-sized plant in Scotland which assumes that we can pump brine into a fresh water lake.

Tysk solkraft variation For solar energy alone we have the following:
– The best day: June 21 the solar
cells produced 23 GW
at noon.
– Similarly, 18 January the
production was less than
1 GW, also at noon.
Of course, not so much the rest of the day and nothing at night.

If solar energy, as planned, should provide an essential part of the German needs – even at wintertime.
Then, of course, there will be disastrous overproduction in summer.
This energy can’t “just” be exported to Norway, which have abundant hydropower in the summer and would like to export.
Perhaps Poland may buy something.

  • It is of course understandable that German industry would like to have an extra gas pipeline established from Russia through the Baltic Sea.
    Then, in the future, they have backup for wind and solar energy.
    At least until the final collapse of the ambitious Energiewende.
  • Perhaps it can also be understood that there are dreams of a connection to Norway.
    Such a connection will be long, expensive and have a considerable energy loss.

To me it is utterly incomprehensible that the “German public opinion” has not understood the seriousness of the situation.

  • The only explanation I can find is, that all this hubbub is the result of a skillful and relentless propaganda, where everything dealing with nuclear and radioactivity has been done to be a major risk.

Greetings and good reflection
Thorkil Søe

Strong European Grid

But there are times when the European Wind power will not provide more than a fraction of what is needed.
The assumption used in the diagram below is that 50% of each country’s electricity generation would be supplied by a combination of wind and hydro.
In tis way you get Wind -- To uger med lav
Hourly wind surpluses and deficits by country, January 2016
Call it baseload or what you like. But click on the diagram.

Hvis du skriver om Three Mile Island, Tjernobyl og Fukushima som om det er tre alen ud af et stykke.
Så føler jeg at det er nødvendigt at bede dig læse følgende:
Three Mile Island: http://wp.me/p1RKWc-15d
Tjernobyl: http://wp.me/p1RKWc-KH
Fukushima: http://wp.me/p1RKWc-KJ
Det er måske lidt meget forlangt og hvis du ikke har tid, så OK
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Men hvis du ikke VIL læse sådan noget – Fordi det – – –
Ja så tillader jeg mig at referere fra en samtale med en meget god dansk missionær i Tanzania.
Jeg havde sagt noget, der forudsatte Darwinisme og udviklingslære – – –
Han sagde:
”Thorkil, det må du ikke sige. Du ved jo at jeg er fundamentalist.”

Hvis du, trods naturlig uvilje, har sat dig ind i forskellighederne, så stiller jeg et hypotetisk spørgsmål:
Du har en stor pose penge, som skal bruges i Langtbordestan.
Man vil have kernekraft fordi man vil mindske, ikke bare antal af dødsfald i kulminer men også forureningen.
Du skal beslutte om man skal have:
– Et stk. EPR, der som vi ved, vil have en FANTASTISK stor sikkerhed.
Eller
– Tre APR-1400, som dem der eksporteres fra Korea.
Disse tre reaktorer vil kun få en MEGET stor sikkerhed. Men vil til gengæld afværge tre gange så mange dødsfald og forurening.
——-Finland valgte og fortrød.
——-United Arab Emirates valgte.
——-England har kun lige valgt.
Hvad ville du vælge?

For at hjælpe lidt på vej nævner jeg noget andet – også fra Tanzania.
En student skulle præsentere sit eksamensprojekt.
Hun havde projekteret en omfartsvej for en by hvor den gennemgående trafik var en stor udfordring.
Til sidst blev hun spurgt om hun så ville anbefale at dette projekt blev realiseret.
Til alles overraskelse svarede hun:
Hvis formålet er at redde menneskeliv, bør pengene bruges til at bekæmpe koleraen!

Hilsner og god tænkepause
Thorkil Søe

englandEnglish translation.
For kilder og henvisninger:
Klik på det der er med gult og se om du får brugbare detaljer.

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Af grunde der ikke er forstået, bliver energi fra sol og vind er betegnet som “Vedvarende”.
Denne betegnelse bruges i modsætning til energi fra både fossile brændsler og fra kernekraft.
I bedste fald er det sidste en fejltagelse.

Glem ikke
Der er masser af “brændsel” til fremtidens kernekraft

Med tilgængelig teknologi der er nok atomenergi til de næste 100 år.
Ved hjælp af teknologi, der er under udvikling vil der være nok til mere end 1000 år.
Med ny teknologi (Thorium), der er lidt mere ud i fremtiden, vil der være nok til måske 100.000 år.
Hvis / når fusion-energi udnyttes. Så vil være nok indtil jorden opsluges af solen som en rød gigant.

OK
Fortalere for energi fra sol og vind insisterer på at bruge falsk varebetegnelse når de insisterer på at blive kaldt vedvarende.
Ligeledes var det falsk varebetegnelse da det tidligere Østtyskland blev kaldt DDR. (Tyske DEMOKRATISKE Republik.)
I folkemunde: “Det Såkaldte”.

MEN
Sol og Wind er IKKE bæredygtigt

I Australien overvejer man at forbyde mere energi fra vind.
Fordi det allerede nu er årsag strømafbrydelser.
“Vi synes allerede at være nået grænser med hensyn til upålidelig elforsyning.”

“De fleste mennesker er begyndt at indse, at den varierende elektricitet ikke er meget værd.
Og
Det kan endda have negativ værdi, når omkostningerne ved alle de nødvendige tilpasninger for at gøre den anvendelig medregnes.”

Stikket trækkes Snart vil det være nødvendigt at afbryde.
Et eller andet sted.
Jeg er sikker på at du ved hvor.

Ja det er realiteterne
Ikke bare i Australien


Duck curve result (2)
Denne graf taler for sig selv.

Europa

Grafen nedenfor viser priserne for elektricitet i Europa relateret til installeret kapacitet på strøm fra sund og vind.
Selvom grafen er interessant, skal det bemærkes, at priserne givet synes at være “Forbrugerpriserne” (inkl. skatter og tilskud)
I modsætning til det jeg anser for sagens kerne: “Produktionsomkostninger”.
De lande, der er markeret med rødt er lande med “økonomiske problemer”
Pris for EL versus installed VE.png
Her vil jeg nævne, at udtrykket “Installeret kapacitet” på en eller anden måde er vildledende.
Selv om det bruges meget når man ønsker at glorificere udbytte fra sol og vind, så er det alligevel (groft) vildledende.

Det er nødvendigt at korrigere for “Udnyttelsesgraden”
(Produceret effekt divideret med maksimalt tilgængelige, det man optimistisk kalder “Installeret Kapacitet”.)
Vind Danmark: 25 – 50%
Vind Tyskland: mindre end 30%
Sol Tyskland: ca. 18%

@ Bentvels
From work at different universities, I have learned that future upgrades depend on:
“Write something about something or bee lost at the next line of promotions.”
Of course it is unwise to pee against the wind and often “university research” show the result.

Although I am afraid of being rejected beforehand, I dare to make reference to World Nuclear.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/radiation-and-health/nuclear-radiation-and-health-effects.aspx
From this I quote:
Some 75,000 children, born to parents who survived high radiation doses at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, have been the subject of intensive examination.
This study confirms that no increase in genetic abnormalities in human populations is likely as a result of even quite high doses of radiation.
Similarly, no genetic effects are evident as a result of the Chernobyl accident.

For me the subject had enormous interest and it ended up with a WordPress site: http://wp.me/p1RKWc-ea
If you go in, you will see that I have plenty of references.
Similarly, I was shocked, when I realized, that there is very little correlation between radiation and cancer.
Also this resulted in a WordPress site: http://wp.me/p1RKWc-1iq
The anti-nuclear fear may have culminated in the widespread belief that Plutonium is the most dangerous substance known to mankind.
Also this has no hold in realities. See http://wp.me/s1RKWc-46

Brugt 2017 08 21

@PHK

Active Measures

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures

24 – 7 – 365

Efter at have behandlet pris på de såkaldt vedvarende kommer man til følgende:
De sædvanlige betragtninger er i realiteten kun gyldige så længe den varierende og delvis uforudsigelige kraft fra sol og vind holder sig til småtingsafdelingen og ikke overskrider ca. 5 % af belastningen.

Fra de amerikanske æææææææææææææææææææææSolenergi USA påvirker priser
Tysk solkraft variation solskinsstater har man udtrykket ”The Duck Curve”.
Først ser man hvorledes den store andel af øget solenergi har ødelagt de oprindelige store overskud i 2012.
Dernæst spørger man: Hvem sørger for backup i de tidlige nattetimer?
Endeligt ses, hvad vi allerede vidste, at i USA er prisdannelsen (delvis) styret af markedskræfter.

I Tyskland, der hovedsageligt satser på solenergi (PV), er situationen mest en fremtidig udfordring.
MEN med den ønskede udfasning af kulkraft og A-kraft vil det tilsyneladende være umuligt at opretholde forsyningen.

Dette og meget andet rejser spørgsmålet om hvordan forsyningen skal opretholdes med færrest muligt offentlige indgreb og mest mulig brug af markedskræfterne.

Tyskland har viklet sig selv ind i et virvar af forskellige støtteordninger, hvorved der gives mest til de mindst effektive.

I England har man taget skridtet fuldt ud og har i januar 2015 afsluttet en udbuds-runde hvorved der skaffes garanteret backup-kapacitet på 49 GW – Hen imod halvdelen af det totale behov for elektricitet.
Resultatet (The Clearing Price) blev: 24 €/kW/år.
Øvrige detaljer mangler.

Hvordan kan dette passes ind?

I stedet for at komme med forslag vil jeg bede dig, min ukendte læser, om at gå i tænkeboks.
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Og.klik påb For sources and references:
Og.klik påb Click on the yellow and see if you get useful details.
Og.klik påb Click on pictures for more details.
__________________________________________________________________________
For reasons not understood, energy from sun and wind is labeled as “Permanent” (vedvarende)
At the best it is a mistake.
Using available technology there is enough nuclear energy for
more than 100 years.
Using technology under development, there will be enough for
several 1000 years
If / when fusion-energy is harnessed:
Then there will be enough until the earth is swallowed by the sun as a read giant.

OK
Energy from sun and wind insist to use a false label.
Similar it was a false label, when the old East Germany was called “German DEMOCRATIC Republic”.
Outside DDR the country was often called “The So-called.”

Sun and Wind are not “Permanent” (Vedvarende)

Australia Considers Banning Wind Power Because It’s Causing Blackouts.
“We already seem to be reaching limits with respect to intermittent electricity supply.
The US Energy Information Administration may be reaching the same conclusion.
It was the issue by Steve Kean from Kinder Morgan (a pipeline company) as its keynote speaker at its July 2016 Annual Conference.
He made the following statements about renewable energy.
This view is very similar to mine.
Few people have stopped to realize that intermittent electricity isn’t worth very much.
It may even have negative value, when the cost of all of the adjustments needed to make it useful are considered.”

Stikket trækkesSoon it will be necessary to disconnect.
Somewhere.
Sure you know!

.
.
.
The graph below show prices for electricity in Europe related to installed capacity of power from sund and wind.
Although the graph is interesting, it should be noted that the prices given appear to be “Consumer prices” and not “Cost of production”
The countries marked with red are countries with “economic problems”
Pris for EL versus installeret VE.png
Further I want to mention that “Installed Capacity” is somehow misleading if not considering the “Utilization Ratio” (Produced power divided by maximum available)
Wind Denmark: 25 – 50 %
Wind Germany: les than 25 %
Sun Germany: about 18 %